I attended the AMBA conference in Red Deer on Sept 9th and had the opportunity to attend an economic panel discussion.  The panellists were Todd Hirsch, ATB Financial, Lai Sing Louie, CMHC and Katherine White, Alberta Finance and Enterprise. 

The key points that I took away and want to share with you are:

- Europe does affect Canada mostly in terms of the credit markets.  Canada exports more to Europe now than in the past and we are working on a Fair Trade Agreement with them as well.  So what happens in Europe will affect us here in Canada.

-If Europe cannot settle its problems we may see credit tightening up even more and commodity prices drop.  Keep an eye on Europe over the next 12 months.

-US is not set for another recession but will remain at or around 0

-The situation in US is more political than financial. Bernanke blamed US politics which is the first time in history.  Most have faith that America will settle the political differences and deal with their financial crisis.  The US dollar is still and will remain the global currency as no other is strong enough at this time.

-The global economy is much more fragile now than it was in 2008.  We may not be in a 'technical' recession but it's like saying we only made it 29 degrees rather than 30 degrees.  Can we tell the difference?  (I really liked this point)

-Oil is expected to remain in the $80-$100 range. Tougher for Gas.

-Wages in Alberta beat Canadian inflation for the past 3-5 years

-Bank of Canada not expecting inflation to be an issue so will likely NOT raise rates for 8-12 months (some feel at least 18 months)

-Many Canadians will be in trouble WHEN rates do go up (now is the ideal time for your clients to review their existing mortgages, buy a home if they qualify and make the most of today's rate environment and plan for the future)

-Migration in Alberta was 21,000 in 2010, 29,000 for 2011 and expecting 32,000 for 2012 (great opportunities for relocation specialists)

- much of the inter-provincial migration is from the Maritimes, BC and Ontario.  Less migration from SK and New Found Land

-Housing starts were up 20% month over month and 23% year over year (some good news there)

-Current market is a buyer's market but expect balanced market soon